The year 2015 may be the most complicated year for empire Ethiopia. The Amharas are organized, the Oromians, the Sidamas and the Ogadenians are ever defiant, the TPLF leaders already sound like Mangistu of 1991 and Eritrea has won the championship of the political game of the horn of Africa. Mean time, tens of thousands of Oromians are in prison while large number of people are leaving the dying empire every day and thousands die on their way to the Arab and European countries.
Though the TPLF has been telling the world that the empire’s economy was growing 11% every year, inflation continues to deflate the buying power of birr, so many new businesses are collapsing, banks are closing and men like Abay Teshaye of TPLF are about to die being infected with a virus that often affect the dictators. Added to that, new leadership continues to emerge from within the Oromo youth and the OPDO officials are becoming more and more corrupt. Obviously, all these and other much complex issues are racing against each to make the empire’s political situation ever complex. Hence, the hallmark of year 2015 is found in these complex political and economical situations.
To balance these complex situation, the TPLF may allow opposition groups to control some 20-25% seat in it’s parliament but that will not cure the economic and political epidemic the empire is currently suffering from. Though the impact of the armed groups may not be felt soon, the Oromo, the Ogadenia and of those operating in north part of the empire is going to be significant down the road. True, what these groups will offer the empire is not clear so far.
Needless to say, the multiple strains this situation created is a worrying trend. Obviously, these complexities didn’t just pop up out of nowhere. They are the making of all involved. Though the TPLF team can be blamed almost entirely for this crisis, the Amharas long-standing desire to resuscitate empire Ethiopia and Oromos internal weakness have merely provided a pretext for TPLF’s decision to look down on everyone. For that Abay Teshaye’s dictatorial bubble of threatening words against the Oromia state government speaks for itself.
Albeit these situation’s unsurprising reality, the Amharas effort of resurrecting the dying empire and TPLF’s aging dictators manners that they are spewing against the population they look down upon will affect the core identity of all ethnic groups of the empire. Obviously, this repeated blindsided political situation will force the colonized people to rise and fight this flawed view. No matter what the TPLF says or does from now on, their logic or realism will hold little relevance in the twenty-first century and their belief that the empire can be kept whole and free on the basis of such lopsided principles, where the rule of law, economic interdependence, and democracy is looked at from narrowly defined point of view is a crisis in itself. In other words, regardless of the Habasha groups view of their empire, their grand scheme will go awry no matter what they say or do. When that happens, the crisis they have created will remain relevant for all those who live inside the empire.
From foreign policy side, Western countries have done all they could to help the minority tribe come and stay in power but they now understand that the values that they have promoted entails a different story. Basically, they are realizing that they have been funding the individuals and their organizations instead of the nation. Because the TPLF gangsters understand that democracy will force them to lose power, they decided to undermine western countries goals and efforts of bringing democratic process to empire Ethiopia.
The good news out of all these is that the westerners may have learned the fact that their social engineering blue print hardly works in Africa. In fact, their support to those who are armed and organized accelerated the demise of democracy, at least in empire Ethiopia.
In 1991, the Western Ambassadors in Finfinnee instructed the TPLF leaders to hurry and eliminate the OLF so that empire Ethiopia will not become another Somalia. After that the Brits joined the TPLF and helped it build impressive military and police force but that only made the Tigre tribal leaders become dictators. In turn, such decision gave rise to anti TPLF wars and demonstrations that escalated over the following 24 years. Of course, to make the Tigre tribal leaders look democratic, fake elections were held every five years in a way the process would help the tribe stay in power until another election season arrived now in 2015. This process led our Afro-fascists feel legitimate rulers of the empire.
Now, the Western governments may not like the pressure that their puppet tribe is under, but they should understand that it is the result of their own miscalculation. It is true that they have used this weak tribe whenever they needed military deployment in Somalia, Sudan and elsewhere in Africa. To understand why the West, especially the United States failed to understand that we the Africans too want freedom to elect our leaders, one must go back to the the formation of empire Ethiopia itself.
Another interesting development that the Western countries do not realize is that Russia and China are rising to replace their interest in continent Africa, especially this time when the western power continued to decline.
I think that the tragic mistake of the West is their failure that their polices are aging and that it is a one-dimensional. Hence, unless the Western countries abandon their one dimensional policy of helping those in power, the disorganized and disadvantaged will remain weary of the West. It is also true that the westerners sometimes operate bi-dimensionally in places such as Iraq where the Shia majority seem to be dominant. But when the Sunni minorities showed their determination, the westerners acted according to the reality on the ground.
The way out
Western countries now know that their social engineering efforts has little effect in empire Ethiopia. But if the oppressed people work hard, the westerners would not try to alter their progress. History shows that the western countries work with those who are organized to protect their interests. From logical point of view, there is no reason to think that any country would rush to help those who do not help themselves. It is also true that the TPLF dictators will cling to power until they are forced to step down.
To remove the TPLF from power and be able to decide our fate, we should fashion a new political culture in which things are done in a fundamentally new way. We must abandon rigidity and learn how to listen to each other or to others. The sad truth is that we think in an abstract way be it is about self-determination, about religion, region, economy etc. The way we have been behaving so far is meaningless. We tend to stick to our way of thinking and reject other’s views.
Nevertheless, we have a choice either to keep our old way or do things differently. Obviously, what we have been doing so far only exacerbated hostilities and devastated our progress. As a result, tens of thousands Oromians leave their birth places every day. The majority Oromians leave Oromia to search for better life, use the Oromo cause to obtain refugee status in America and elsewhere.
In the mix of all these, there are few who arrived in foreign countries after paying great sacrifices and inconveniences. This is the picture of the Oromo diaspora. Amid all these, the majority still keeps in touch with their families, few travel back and forth as they worked on the project of influencing our society with the organizations ideologies they work for, some suffer from the nostalgic memories of their culture and families and the rest seem to believe that their anger against the Tigre rulers alone is enough to solve the Oromo people’s challenges.
The general truth that everyone shares however is that there is enough desire and skill to produce the result we truly desire if we are courageous enough to tackle our own short comings. Without it, even the weak TPLF can last another five years. So, lets change our way of thinking and be practical.
Rundassa Asheetee Hunde
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